On Tuesday, we learned that embattled Republican Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona requested to be cut from the House Republican ROMP (“Regain Our Majority Program”) fund in the wake of an exposed federal investigation into Renzi’s role in a land-swap deal and an FBI raid on his wife’s insurance business. If that wasn’t enough to set off the early-retirement alarm bells, Renzi is acknowledging that he may resign soon, according to the Business Journal of Phoenix and the East Valley Tribune:
Rep. Rick Renzi. R-Ariz., is “looking at” the prospect of resigning his office in response to an FBI public-corruption investigation.On Tuesday, he told The Hill, a newspaper that covers the Washington political scene, that he was considering leaving office.
He has denied any wrongdoing, but has stepped down, at least temporarily, from his three committee assignments.
Renzi’s district, with a PVI of R+2.2, went for Bush by a margin of 8 points in 2004 and 5 points in 2000, and it’s known for having a largely middle of the road political identity.
It’s time to ramp up for either a special election, a 2008 open seat, or an aggressive challenge against a damaged incumbent (a scenario that’s looking less and less likely). Who might we run here? In any event, it’s going to be an all-out brawl.
(H/T to RandyMI)
UPDATE: RandySF (lots of Randys have been on top of this story, it seems) brings us word that Republican leaders are urging Renzi to resign:
Top Republicans, including U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl, have been meeting to discuss what they will do if Renzi resigns and his rural congressional seat opens up.Republican leaders also are starting to encourage Renzi to resign, saying a prolonged investigation will hurt the party’s chances of holding onto his Arizona seat, according to knowledgeable sources.
Democrats also are preparing for a Renzi exit. Cottonwood attorney Jim Ledbetter is among those being recruited by party leadership to run for Renzi’s seat in a possible special election.
More on Ledbetter:
Ledbetter is a conservative Democrat, favoring gun rights and a federal ban on some late-term abortions. He said it would be best for the district if Renzi stepped down soon.Ledbetter said Thursday he is traveling to Washington to meet with Democratic congressional and campaign leaders. He said he already has spoken with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and U.S. Reps. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Adam Schiff of California about a possible run for Renzi’s seat.
Renzi’s district has a slight Democratic voter registration edge, but it is rural and socially conservative and has gone for the GOP in recent years. It includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, Sedona, Payson and Prescott.
Other possible Democratic candidates include former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell, Arizona Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Pete Rios, Arizona Sen. Rebecca Rios, state Environmental Quality Director Steve Owens, former Phoenix TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, consultant Fred DuVal and shopping center developer Jim Pederson.
Possible GOP successors to Renzi include former Arizona Senate President Ken Bennett, Arizona Rep. Bill Konopnicki, and rancher and Republican booster Steve Pierce.
David is right on the money. This will become a must-win race if we want to maintain our momentum. I don’t know enough about Ledbetter or the other names to have any insight on who would be the best candidate to wave the Democratic banner. Simon has her own baggage, but she did make a very respectable run at Renzi last November, losing by 8 points. I’m somewhat underwhelmed with Jim Pederson; his Senate campaign did attempt to hit Kyl hard, but he fell for a few bad frames (e.g. “I won’t cut and run!”). I’d be curious to see how well Pederson performed in the 1st District.
Race Tracker: AZ-01
I just hope Van Hollen is ready. Because this race is going to be a serious, serious test of our capabilities. If the GOP can win a special election in a pretty swingish district under such adverse circumstances, it will really put wind in their sails. But if we win, we take a district we’ve been eager to snatch for years, we increase our majority in Congress, and we go to bat in 2008 trying to protect an incumbent rather than trying to knock one off – always a better position.
He ran a fairly good statewide race, and can self finance his campaign, which is always a plus. we need a strong candidate now, so we can get the seat when renzi resigns and the repubs are thwon into disarray!
in the 1st District: He lost (43.7 to 52.5), and by a margin extremely similar to his statewide margin (43.5 to 53.3). He won Apache and Coconino (Flagstaff) counties, but lost badly in Yavapai (Prescott), which has the most votes in the district. (This isn’t quite precise, as small parts of Coconino (the Hopi reservation) and Pinal (Apache Jct. in the Phoenix suburbs) are in other districts.)
but that was against a popular senator, rated by Time as one of the ten best, that was neve rin danger of losing re-election. an open race would be different.
I grew up in that district, and there’s no effing way Pederson’s running. To my knowledge he doesn’t even live in the district, and even if he does, no one knows who he is. Ditto with DuVal, who has become thoroughly Phoenixized and is waiting for Jan Brewer’s SecState job to open up. Ledbetter, yeah, he’s really conservative and you don’t want him, plus nobody in the district knows him from Adam. Mary Kim Titla would be a good candidate (all jokes about her name aside) but people from outside the district don’t realize that she’s not going to pick up Native American votes just because she’s a Native American. She’s a member of the Apache tribe, which is a tiny part of the First District, and Navajos aren’t going to vote for her because she’s not one of them.
We need to put up someone really strong, though, because the Republicans have two ace-in-the-hole candidates: Lewis Tenney, an Eastern Arizona rancher who came in a surprising second to Renzi in the 2002 primary, and Tom O’Halleran, a state senator from Sedona. Both of these guys are very moderate and exceedingly popular district-wide (I’ve even voted for O’Halleran in the past). They’re not your typical corrupt Republican officeholders like Renzi.
The key to winning this district for the Dems is racking up huge margins in Flagstaff and on the Navajo reservation while keeping it close in the Republican areas of Yavapai County and Eastern Arizona. In 2002, George Cordova almost pulled this off, winning an astonishing 85% of the vote on the Navajo reservation and 65-35 in Flagstaff; however, Lewis Tenney’s campaign manager worked for Renzi and turned out the Republican ranchers in Eastern Arizona, while Yavapai County went 70-30 for Renzi, giving him a narrow 49-46 victory overall. In 2004, dream candidate Paul Babbitt (who I volunteered for) was a disaster in the field; Renzi actually won the Navajo Nation, an astounding achievement for any Republican, and also racked up huge margins in Eastern Arizona, where it turned out the ranchers were mad at Babbitt’s brother for something he’d done as Governor. (Go figure.) In 2006, Ellen Simon won on the Navajo Nation but not by a large enough margin, and lost heavily in Yavapai County to go down by nine points to Renzi.
The best candidate we could field in this district is State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick is that rare crossover figure who plays excellently both on the Navajo Nation, where she grew up, and in Flagstaff, where she now lives. If Tenney wins, Eastern Arizona is lost to us, and if O’Halleran wins, Yavapai County is lost to us, but Kirkpatrick stands a good chance of picking up enough votes in the other region to stay competitive.
A final note about this district: Democrats always do significantly better in off-years, because that’s when the Navajo Nation President is elected, which brings high turnout from the reservation. This election will take place in a Presidential year, which will heavily favor Republicans. So our candidate needs to be REALLY good.
Rick Renzi is not very likely to resign in the near future. The GOP is simply not ready to face a special election in this district and reports indicate that local GOP leaders are lobbying Renzi to hold off any resignation for the good of Team Red.
In saying this I am not stating he will not resign anytime this term, simply that he will not resign soon.